We can say that pre-election marathon in Abkhazia has already started. Along with it political and civil confrontation within the society is becoming more and more strained. And that may lead to armed conflict among Abkhazians. Independent expert Goha Gvaramia comments on this situation and possible events.
Mister Gvaramia, considering the worsened confrontation, how likely is it that we will again see shootings, attacks, fighting among citizens?
As we remember the same situation took place during the last Presidential elections. Several people died then but the Kremlin still couldn’t pull off and make their man Khadjimba a president. Today at the first glance this confrontation seems quite civilized. But the confrontation in the society lead by the Kremlin puppet politicians is so fierce that we cannot rule out repetition of the events that took place five years ago.
How do you think who will win this time?
It’s not of much importance to us who will be the president. The candidate will still be chosen in the Kremlin. Another thing is important. Russia always follows “divide and rule” principle. If before that the principle was applied to the Georgians and Abkhazians, now it is being used in order to divide and therefore better control towards the Abkhazian society that was consolidated after the war with Georgians in 1990s. Russia’s ultimate objective is clear. Following this course Russia is trying to divert attention of the Abkhazian society towards these issues and at that very time Russia carries out step by step annexation of the Abkhazian territories.
Is it possible for Russia even with the confrontation and discontent in the society, to take a course of action that was frequently voiced before – integration of Abkhazia into the Krasnodar region of Russia?
The fear of such events is growing in the Abkhazian society. The thing is that the Abkhazians that were fighting for independence are now facing altogether a different reality. The Russians are following a course of total annexation of Abkhazia and turning it into one of its own provinces. Neither Russians nor the separatist regime can any longer hide existing in the society anger and discontent. Imperialistic policy of Russia is widely discussed by the opposition on its web-pages and printed publications. And although a reason for such actions from the opposition is an electoral campaign that shows a clear dissatisfaction of the Abkhazian society.
I think Russia will take a full advantage of this situation. Taking into account that even after the end of the war actions disarmament of the Abkhazian population never happened and every family has two or tree guns it is quite likely that political rivalry might lead to armed confrontation.
The above completely falls into the plans of the Kremlin that is carrying out its usual policy of “compulsion to peace”. They will take advantage of this confrontation and will highly increase its military potential in Abkhazia. If today mainly military divisions of the border service of FSS are operating in Abkhazia, soon the Russian military presence will be considerably increased at the expense of the Regular Army of the Defense Ministry of the Russian Federation and in the name of “compulsion to peace” policy and securing its own citizens. The Kremlin will practically turn Abkhazia into a big Russian military base and will add to its own territory without too much ado.