The alliance between the leader of the Tskhinvali opposition and her "godfather", head coach of Russia's freestyle wrestling national team Dzambolat Tedeev has been broken. Discarding old roses of the political affair, opponents of Eduard Kokoity gave him a present that former head of the puppet regime that left the "presidential" chair (but not benefits of power) did not expect at all. The already weak opposition has followed the worst possible course – it split up, and at that the basis for this division was clearly a conflict. Now neither the regime in Tskhinvali nor its backers in Moscow would meet with serious barriers with the transfer of power under a suitable for them scenario.

Tedeev’s desire to try his luck again and get involved in the electoral process in the Tskhinvali "election" was a surprise to observers. Next week an initiative group will take application for his registration as a candidate for "president” to the local CEC. A meeting of the initiative group of about 80 people took place in Tskhinvali on the 20th of January and its members were not even embarrassed by the fact that papers would be processed by the same personnel of the CEC that refused to allow him to register in the beginning of October 2011 under the pretext of non-compliance with residency requirements.

A member of the initiative group Violetta Tedeeva in an interview with the Ekho Kavkaza reminded that the last time everything was decided by just one vote: "Then the vote was not in our favour, 7 were" against " and 6 - “for ". In addition, prosecutor general Khugaev
Intervened – everyone saw it very well. And residency requirements did not play a big role there". On the same day Dzambolat Tedeev himself when talking with the Russian media tied his hopes of a favourable outcome to formal withdrawal of Kokoity from the government: "The CEC is kind of independent now." And he explained his sudden decision to try to run again with demands of supporters in so-called "South Ossetia": "they insist, they come to Moscow, almost half of the republic comes."

Thus, Tedeev openly came out against Alla Dzhioeva - his candidate in November's "elections" in which she won, but could not keep the victory. It is no secret that consolidation of the Tskhinvali opposition around Dzhioeva and its subsequent success was due primarily to the fact that fellow countrymen saw her as a protégé of famous wrestler. All the more that the entire financial and human resources of Dzambolat Tedeev were thrown to work on Alla Dzhioeva - starting with the hero of "August" War Anatoly Barankevich who was a right hand of the opposition candidate.

Today Dzhioeva who could not find justice in Moscow, returned to Tskhinvali, and calls herself "the president-elect." She issued an ultimatum to hand over power to her and called the upcoming on March 25th re-"elections" an illegitimate in advance. And Alla Dzhioeva used the initiative of her former political ally to establish herself as an independent figure. "I have a positive attitude towards Tedeev’s decision to run for presidency - she told RIA Novosti. - His decision confirms once again that we are not dependent on each other. The only question that I have with all candidates, including him, would be how they view the decision of the supreme court to cancel the [December] elections. If they are in favour of this decision, then they will ruin themselves, and if negative - how can they participate in illegitimate elections? "

It is difficult to judge what considerations guided Dzambolat Tedeev when he broke up with Alla Dzhioeva in whom he put all his political capital before and in case of whose victory he would have been guaranteed to become the second in rank, but the first by significance in the Tskhinvali region. But it should be noted that so far there is no information as to from where the Russian wrestling coach was giving comments to the Russian media. He is not in Tskhinvali and that’s a fact. And whether Tedeev returned to Russia or not - information on this subject is absent as well. We can assume that the same forces, from which he fled to Europe, were able to convince the arch enemy of Kokoity of futility of further struggle for power. And he agreed to undermine the position of the Tskhinvali opposition from inside in exchange for forgiveness of the FSB and the Kremlin. We cannot rule out that at that he managed to bargain out some additional benefits for himself personally.

Now Dzhioeva is left to her own devices. On her side is political and moral authority that she acquired late last year as a result of the convincing victory over the favourite of the Kremlin and protégé of the Tskhinvali government party Anatoly Bibilov. On the other hand, Alla Dzhioeva has lost some of this authority, when she brought people out to streets, forced the government to agree to some concessions, but was unable to enforce the political compromise and was left "deceived" in all respects. People were frustrated and pessimism and disbelief in the possibility of change spread among them. And now, it turns out, that their leader was even left by her political "spouse" whom they supported in many respects when supporting Dzhioeva.

The only leverage that "the president-elect" could use to influence the situation in the occupied region rather than just emerge as a victim of lawlessness is street mobilization. However, even in the best days of the December rallies in Tskhinvali truly dangerous to Kokoity was only the first day when 2-3 thousand people gathered on the Theatre Square. Afterwards the crowd thinned dramatically and several hundred left there did not give the regime good cause to feel fear. The result was ignoring the protesters, unfulfilled promises and forcing through their line. Now, one does not even have to guess how the protest electorate will behave after "split off" of Tedeev and automatic split in the opposition ranks.

It is not yet known whether Dzambolat Tedeev will be registered or not. and if yes what results will be shown by him on March 25th. But it is clear already that mobilization potential of the opponents of the regime has been reduced to its lowest. The Tskhinvali opposition can be safely ignored and "elections" can be hold as one wishes. Local CEC has already received applications from five candidates, and registered two initiative groups. And local communists set the trend for "festival of democracy" scheduled for the spring - the Communist Party of South Ossetia has officially announced that he would support a candidate "of Moscow choosing".