Recently on Russian electronic publications I have come across several “diplomatic anecdotes” that present international legal status of Abkhazia and so-called South Ossetia in a quite wittily satirical and joking context.

And indeed, one cannot help smiling when reading this: “recognition of Abkhazia by Nicaragua was assessed as an unprecedented event in the history of the diplomacy. This is the first time that a banana recognized a tangerine”. Or another joke: ”when Nauru recognized independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia the national bank of the island state issued loans to both of them – 500 bananas each”.

Of course, with such ironic digressions we would not want at all to offend our Sukhumian or Tskhinvalian compatriots but a fact is a stubborn thing: one cannot see “independent” diplomatic activities of the breakaway regions of Georgia in other than anecdotic light. At the same time it also has some very positive results. It was “important” achievements of so-called foreign politics of Tskhinvali ad Sukhumi that reminded us about existence of a small island state of Nauru somewhere in the Pacific Ocean - Nauru that through development of Guano (bird excrements) industry was one of the richest countries in the world and which now is among ecologically destroyed and extremely poor countries; it also reminded us about a poverty-stricken island of Tuvalu which, as environmentalists claim, will be swallowed by waves of the Pacific Ocean in a few years; It reminded us about the island of Vanuatu which is permanently in crisis and which with its “relations” with Abkhazia indeed puts itself in a very awkward situation – previous government had recognized independence of the separatists while the current government cancelled their recognition… In short, what we have here is tropical exotics sprinkled with political jokes.

Representatives of Abkhazian and “South Ossetian” so-called foreign ministries, for example, Irakli Khintba or Murat Jioev, or some Abkhazian or Ossetian officials – fighters of the diplomatic front - may argue with me that Nicaragua and Venezuela at least are serious states. And of course, with their area and population we cannot compare these Latin American countries with tiny Polynesian or Micronesian dwarf states - Nauru and Tuvalu. But with their totalitarian political system Venezuela and Nicaragua cannot be considered that exemplary states either. All the more that we cannot forget that Caracas and Managua recognized independence of Georgia’s breakaway regions in return for a bribe - arms that Russia gave them practically for free.

But what can we say? As they say a bribe lights up even the hell. Even if it is in the form of tanks, rockets and Kalashnikov guns. Just give comandante Daniel Ortega and Lieutenant Colonel Hugo Chavez weapons and they will do everything for Russia. The main thing is what have been benefits that our separatists received from the recognition of the Latin American outsiders? There is no economic relations and trade between them, we cannot see, and probably will never see, offices of Venezuelan or Nicaraguan companies, tankers loaded with Chavez oil… As to “Abkhazian embassy” in Caracas, apart from an ambassador- boxing coach, its staff almost entirely consists of Russians and Venezuelans.

Bitter truth for the separatists: last year we have not seen any economic relations of Abkhazia and “South Ossetia” with those that recognized their independence (except Russia). But it is not surprising. Both Sukhumi and Tskhinvali continue to mainly exist thorough Russian financial and material injections. We only wonder, how long this artificial ventilation will continue.

Regarding accession into international organizations, the only significant success of the Abkhazian diplomacy was Abkhazia becoming a member of the domino international federation (Ossetian diplomacy, unfortunately, failed in this matter). Anyway, Abkhazians themselves believe that the said organization is no worse than the UN, European Union, Council of Europe, and OSCE… And confirmation of this was that last year Sukhumi pompously hosted the greatest sporting event of the world - the eight world domino championship! Indeed, not many have been so honoured.

What will the year of 2012 bring? What are prospects for Abkhazia and “South Ossetia” on the diplomatic front?

It is true that in the international politics events often occur calculation and forecasting of which in advance is difficult and sometimes even impossible. But we can forecast for the Abkhazian and Ossetian separatists – trend of non-recognition of their independence will continue in 2012 as well. Abkhazia and “South Ossetia” will still remain in the diplomatic isolation. It is clear that Russian embassies in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali that exist in proud loneliness will be preserved in the history as their only representative offices.

In addition, doors of influential international organizations will remain closed to Abkhazia and “South Ossetia”. In other words, none of them will become a member of any international interstate organizations. At the same time, we cannot rule out that the separatists will not become members of some, the domino federation-like less known non-governmental international organizations.

And in conclusion, we continue to repeat: such obvious dependence on Russia and Moscow-orientated course will only damage Sukhumi and Tskhinvali in the near and long perspectives. This road practically is a road to nowhere. It is a road to encroaching on their dignity not to mention their sovereignty.